Middle tennessee vs toledo prediction mac#
Since MAC teams play in more one-score games than other conferences, due to having the lowest Variance Score in-league, there’s a greater uncertainty of outcome even for their top teams. Should one or two 50/50 bounces in each game go the opposite way, Ohio could well have finished 5-7 and missed out on the MAC Championship Game and a bowl. 7 in the “luck” metric, per TeamRankings. They also went +12 in the turnover department and finished No. Last season, Ohio went 3-0 in one-score games during the regular season and finished 10-4.
“Net close wins” refers to the gap between close wins and close losses for example, a 4-1 record in one-score games falls under three net close wins. Of those who had four or five net close wins, 83.2% (!!!) had the same or weaker record the next year. According to Phil Steele, 67.8% of teams that had two net close wins had the same or weaker record the next year. Close Wins And Regression To The MeanĬhances are, if you posted a really good record in one-score games one year, you’re bound to regress to the expected mean the next year. Because of that, these two teams expect to play in more one-score games than any other conference favorite. Neither Toledo nor Ohio project to be more than a two-touchdown favorite over any in-conference opponent this season for the Bobcats, they project not to be favored by more than 10 against any in-conference opponent. The difference is, the Big Ten (103.63) and Pac-12 (109.34) have nearly TEN TIMES the Variance Score of the MAC. The pricing of conference futures here looks similar to most other conferences like the Big Ten or Pac-12. Central Michigan and Northern Illinois fall in before we get into real longshot territory. The next tier consists of Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, and Miami. Toledo and Ohio are a clear one-two favorite. Let’s take a look at current MAC odds:Ĭollege Football Conference Odds: The MAC Variance Score can be a helpful handicapping tool when assessing CFB conference odds. Teams leading conference odds tables like Toledo in the MAC ( ) become less certain of a bet because the gap between them and the fifth-best MAC team (Eastern Michigan) is less than a touchdown. If the Variance Score in a certain conference is really low, then there’s more parity and a higher weekly probability of close games and upsets. How Does Variance Score Impact CFB Conference Odds? Every team except one (Eastern Michigan) has made the MAC Championship Game at least once since 2015. The last teams to repeat an appearance in the conference championship game from either division were Bowling Green and Northern Illinois from 2013-15, both of whom happened to have nationally-prolific quarterback play in that stretch. Take, for example, the conference with the lowest Variance Score, the MAC (17.41). Lower Variance Score means a tighter gap between teams and, therefore, more parity. In the data above, higher Variance Score means a larger gap between the top and bottom of the conference therefore, there is less parity. How big a gap is there between the top of the conference and the bottom? In this instance, I used aggregate preseason power ratings from multiple sources like SP+, FPI, etc., to calculate variance. I’ve pulled numbers to calculate Variance Score between conferences, but it’s an observable phenomenon. Oftentimes, I prefer betting the smaller conferences due to a lack of information readily available. Win totals are out for every team and more books are beginning to trickle out division odds and conference odds for the Group of Five leagues. It’s late June, which means I’m really diving into the nitty gritty for the upcoming college football season.
Variance Score and College Football Conference Odds
Middle tennessee vs toledo prediction tv#
The wild nature and consistent close games make MACtion one of college football’s most beloved TV products.īut how is it that this group of 12 small schools in towns like DeKalb, Illinois, and Kalamazoo, Michigan, manage to put on that good of a product each year? How is it that through sleet and snow and fog, Tuesday and Wednesday nights in November are appointment television?
Northern Illinois freshman Justin Lynch – younger brother of former Heisman contender Jordan and who played just three snaps the week before – rushed in a go-ahead touchdown with just seconds left on the clock to beat Western Michigan. Of those games, endearingly dubbed “MACtion,” four of them finished within 10 points and half finished within one score. In Week 11 of the 2022 college football season, the Mid-American Conference played six weeknight games. A “Variance Score” metric is also provided to help guide you through which conferences should have the most parity, increasing the chance of a longshot emerging in 2023. Below, we’ll dive into what variance is and how it impacts college football conference odds to hopefully make smarter bets for the 2023 CFB season. Variance is an often-overlooked aspect college football betting.
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